What makes money?Back to the board

How we score

We separate business performance from hype. Funding, popularity and financial performance are different signals, so we evaluate them separately.

0–5TrustHow reliable is the supporting evidence? Public filings and audited numbers rank higher than company or founder claims.0–25Business StrengthHow strong is the underlying business across scale, growth, profitability, efficiency and durability. Funding does not increase this score.0–5DemandEvidence that customers are actively using, paying for, returning to or expanding their use of the product. Funding and hype do not count as demand.0–25SignalCombines Business Strength with evidence confidence. Higher scores reflect stronger operating proof backed by more trustworthy sources.

Trust 0–5

How reliable the evidence is. The score comes from the best source behind the main revenue or profit figure.

Higher confidence

  • Audited financial filings
  • Regulatory disclosures and confirmed acquisition documents

Medium confidence

  • Direct company financial disclosures
  • Reputable financial reporting
  • Credible analytics providers (estimates)

Lower confidence

  • Company claims and social posts
  • Founder claims

Business Strength 0–25

Five dimensions, each scored 0 to 5.

ScaleHow much revenue the business brings in each year.
GrowthHow fast revenue or paying customers are growing. Downloads or users alone can't score high.
ProfitabilityWhether it makes money after costs, and how well that is proven.
EfficiencyRevenue per employee, or revenue relative to the capital it raised.
DurabilityHow likely the revenue is to last: retention, repeat customers and sustained growth.

Funding and valuation never increase Business Strength.

Demand 0–5

Evidence that real customers or users are adopting, paying for, returning to or expanding their use of the product or service.

  1. 5
    ProvenMonetized adoption, plus retention or repeat evidence, plus sustained growth.
  2. 4
    StrongStrong paying-customer growth, or strong retention or repeat evidence.
  3. 3
    MonetizingMeaningful adoption with some monetization.
  4. 2
    AdoptionStrong adoption, but monetization is unclear.
  5. 1
    Early signalsEarly or discovery signals only, such as rankings, reviews or community activity.
  6. 0
    DecliningDocumented deterioration, churn or declining usage.

No Demand score means there isn’t enough reliable evidence yet. It does not mean demand is zero.

Signal

Signal combines Business Strength with evidence confidence. The same business scores higher when its numbers come from stronger sources.

Business StrengthTrustSignal

A company is ranked once it reaches Trust 2 and Business Strength 12. Below that it sits on the watchlist until stronger evidence appears. Demand only breaks ties between equal Signals.

Evidence labels

VerifiedSupported by strong primary evidence.
EstimatedCalculated or supplied by a third-party data provider.
Self-reportedProvided by the company or founder and not independently verified.

We keep these separate

  • Funding is not revenue
  • Valuation is not revenue
  • ARR is not profit
  • GMV is not company revenue
  • Downloads is not active users
  • Users is not paying customers
  • Popularity is not proof of retention

Capital is context only

Funding, valuation and capital raised are useful context and can appear on a company’s record. They never increase Business Strength or Demand.